George Santayana's statement, "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it, " is only half true. The past also includes successful histories. If you haven't been made aware of them, you're often condemned not to repeat their successes. In a rapidly expanding field such as software engineering, this happens a lot. Extensive studies of many software projects such as the Standish Reports offer convincing evidence that many projects fail to repeat past successes. This paper tries to identify at least some of the major past software experiences that were well worth repeating, and some that were not. It also tries to identify underlying phenomena influencing the evolution of software engineering practices that have at least helped the author appreciate how our field has gotten to where it has been and where it is. A counterpart Santayana-like statement about the past and future might say, "In an era of rapid change, those who repeat the past are condemned to a bleak future. " (Think about the dinosaurs, and think carefully about software engineering maturity models that emphasize repeatability.) This paper also tries to identify some of the major sources of change that will affect software engineering practices in the next couple of decades, and identifies some strategies for assessing and adapting to these sources of change. It also makes some first steps towards distinguishing relatively timeless software engineering principles that are risky not to repeat, and conditions of change under which aging practices will become increasingly risky to repeat.

Through conceptual examples and demonstrations, we argue that the symbiotic combination of the Internet and humans will result in a significant enhancement of the previously existing, self-organizing social structure of humans. The combination of the unique capabilities of intelligent, distributed information systems (the relatively loss-less transmission and capturing of detailed signatures) with the unique capabilities of humans (processing and analysis of complex, but limited, systems) will enable essential problem solving within our increasingly complex world. The capability may allow solutions that are not achievable directly by individuals, organizations or governments. Introduction The premise of our work is presented in this section. We acknowledge that the following ideas are still somewhat controversial within their own fields of relevance, but we are encouraged also by the growing integration of these ideas across many disciplines and are confident that the viewpoint presen...

ABSTRACT. This paper suggests that from a cognitive-evolutionary perspective, computational media are qualitatively different from many of the technologies that have promised educational change in the past and failed to deliver. Recent theories of human cognitive evolution suggest that human cognition has evolved through four distinct stages: episodic, mimetic, mythic, and theoretical. This progression was driven by three cognitive advances: the ability to “represent ” events, the development of symbolic reference, and the creation of external symbolic representations. In this paper, we suggest that we are developing a new cognitive culture: a “virtual ” culture dependent on the externalization of symbolic processing. We suggest here that the ability to externalize the manipulation of formal systems changes the very nature of cognitive activity. These changes will have important consequences for mathematics education in coming decades. In particular, we argue that mathematics education in a virtual culture should strive to give students generative fluency to learn varieties of representational systems, provide opportunities to create and modify representational forms, develop skill in making and exploring virtual environments, and emphasize mathematics as a fundamental way of making sense of the world, reserving most exact computation and formal proof for those who will need those specialized skills.

Many people interact with a collection of man-made virtual machines (VMs) every day without reflecting on what that implies about options open to biological evolution, and the implications for relations between mind and body. This tutorial position paper introduces some of the roles different sorts of running VMs (e.g. single function VMs, “platform ” VMs) can play in engineering designs, including “vertical separation of concerns ” and suggests that biological evolution “discovered” problems that require VMs for their solution long before we did. This paper explains some of the unnoticed complexity involved in making artificial VMs possible, some of the implications for philosophical and cognitive theories about mind-brain supervenience and some options for design of cognitive architectures with self-monitoring and self-control.

The forecasting capabilities of feed-forward neural network (FFNN) models are compared to those of other competing time series models by carrying out forecasting experiments. As demonstrated by the detailed forecasting results for the Canadian lynx data set, FFNN models perform very well, especially when the series contains nonlinear and non-Gaussian characteristics. To compare the forecasting accuracy of a FFNN model with an alternative model, Pitman’s test is employed to ascertain if one model forecasts significantly better than another when generating one-step-ahead forecasts. Moreover, the residual-fit spread plot is utilized in a novel fashion in this paper to compare visually out-of-sample forecasts of two alternative forecasting models. Finally, forecasting findings on the lynx data are used to explain under what conditions one would expect FFNN models to furnish reliable and accurate forecasts. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. key words feed-forward neural networks; lynx data; Pitman’s test; SETAR model; visualization

Abstract. In response to the increasing criticality of software within systems and the increasing demands being put onto software-intensive systems, software and systems engineering processes will evolve significantly over the next two decades. This paper identifies eight relatively surprise-free trends – the increasing interaction of software engineering and systems engineering; increased emphasis on users and end value; increased emphasis on systems and software dependability; increasingly rapid change; increasing global connectivity and need for systems to interoperate; increasingly complex systems of systems; increasing needs for COTS, reuse, and legacy systems and software integration; and computational plenty. It also identifies two “wild card ” trends: increasing software autonomy and combinations of biology and computing. It then discusses the likely influences of these trends on software and systems engineering processes between now and 2025, and presents an emerging three-team adaptive process model for coping with the resulting challenges and opportunities of developing 21 st century software-intensive systems and systems of systems. 1

Abstract not found

I review the history of work in Artificial Life on the problem of the open-ended evolutionary growth of complexity in computational worlds. This is then put into the context of evolutionary epistemology and human creativity. Parts of this text are based on a book chapter, co-authored with Wolfgang Banzhaf, for the forthcoming

Pierre Teilhard de Chardin was among the first to give serious consideration to the future of human evolution. His work advocates both biotechnologies (e.g., genetic engineering) and intelligence technologies. He discusses the emergence of a global computationcommunication system (and is said by some to have been the first to have envisioned the Internet). He advocates the development of a global society. Teilhard is almost surely the first to discuss the acceleration of technological progress to a Singularity in which human intelligence will become super-intelligence. He discusses the spread of human intelligence into the universe and its amplification into a cosmic intelligence. More recently, his work has been taken up by Barrow and Tipler; Tipler; Moravec; and Kurzweil. Of course, Teilhard’s Omega Point Theory is deeply Christian, which may be difficult for secular transhumanists. But transhumanism cannot avoid a fateful engagement with Christianity. Christian institutions may support or oppose transhumanism. Since Christianity is an extremely powerful cultural force in the West, it is imperative for transhumanism to engage it carefully. A serious study of Teilhard can help that engagement and will thus be rewarding to both communities. 1.

This presentation is available at