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540
Testing ContinuousTime Models of the Spot Interest Rate
 Review of Financial Studies
, 1996
"... Different continuoustime models for interest rates coexist in the literature. We test parametric models by comparing their implied parametric density to the same density estimated nonparametrically. We do not replace the continuoustime model by discrete approximations, even though the data are rec ..."
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Cited by 192 (7 self)
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Different continuoustime models for interest rates coexist in the literature. We test parametric models by comparing their implied parametric density to the same density estimated nonparametrically. We do not replace the continuoustime model by discrete approximations, even though the data are recorded at discrete intervals. The principal source of rejection of existing models is the strong nonlinearity of the drift. Around its mean, where the drift is essentially zero, the spot rate behaves like a random walk. The drift then meanreverts strongly when far away from the mean. The volatility is higher when away from the mean. The continuoustime financial theory has developed extensive tools to price derivative securities when the underlying traded asset(s) or nontraded factor(s) follow stochastic differential equations [see Merton (1990) for examples]. However, as a practical matter, how to specify an appropriate stochastic differential equation is for the most part an unanswered question. For example, many different continuoustime The comments and suggestions of Kerry Back (the editor) and an anonymous referee were very helpful. I am also grateful to George Constantinides,
The Variational Formulation of the FokkerPlanck Equation
 SIAM J. Math. Anal
, 1999
"... The FokkerPlanck equation, or forward Kolmogorov equation, describes the evolution of the probability density for a stochastic process associated with an Ito stochastic differential equation. It pertains to a wide variety of timedependent systems in which randomness plays a role. In this paper, ..."
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Cited by 126 (18 self)
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The FokkerPlanck equation, or forward Kolmogorov equation, describes the evolution of the probability density for a stochastic process associated with an Ito stochastic differential equation. It pertains to a wide variety of timedependent systems in which randomness plays a role. In this paper, we are concerned with FokkerPlanck equations for which the drift term is given by the gradient of a potential. For a broad class of potentials, we construct a timediscrete, iterative variational scheme whose solutions converge to the solution of the FokkerPlanck equation. The major novelty of this iterative scheme is that the time step is governed by the Wasserstein metric on probability measures. This formulation enables us to reveal an appealing, and previously unexplored, relationship between the FokkerPlanck equation and the associated free energy functional. Namely, we demonstrate that the dynamics may be regarded as a gradient flux, or a steepest descent, for the free energy wi...
Adaptive Greedy Approximations
"... The problem of optimally approximating a function with a linear expansion over a redundant dictionary of waveforms is NPhard. The greedy matching pursuit algorithm and its orthogonalized variant produce suboptimal function expansions by iteratively choosing dictionary waveforms that best match the ..."
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Cited by 111 (0 self)
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The problem of optimally approximating a function with a linear expansion over a redundant dictionary of waveforms is NPhard. The greedy matching pursuit algorithm and its orthogonalized variant produce suboptimal function expansions by iteratively choosing dictionary waveforms that best match the function's structures. A matching pursuit provides a means of quickly computing compact, adaptive function approximations. Numerical experiments show that the approximation errors from matching pursuits initially decrease rapidly, but the asymptotic decay rate of the errors is slow. We explain this behavior by showing that matching pursuits are chaotic, ergodic maps. The statistical properties of the approximation errors of a pursuit can be obtained from the invariant measure of the pursuit. We characterize these measures using group symmetries of dictionaries and by constructing a stochastic differential equation model. We derive a notion of the coherence of a signal with respect to a dict...
Statistical dynamics of the Royal Road genetic algorithm
 Theoretical Computer Science
, 1999
"... Metastability is a common phenomenon. Many evolutionary processes, both natural and artificial, alternate between periods of stasis and brief periods of rapid change in their behavior. In this paper an analytical model for the dynamics of a mutationonly genetic algorithm (GA) is introduced that iden ..."
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Cited by 57 (5 self)
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Metastability is a common phenomenon. Many evolutionary processes, both natural and artificial, alternate between periods of stasis and brief periods of rapid change in their behavior. In this paper an analytical model for the dynamics of a mutationonly genetic algorithm (GA) is introduced that identifies a new and general mechanism causing metastability in evolutionary dynamics. The GA’s population dynamics is described in terms of flows in the space of fitness distributions. The trajectories through fitness distribution space are derived in closed form in the limit of infinite populations. We then show how finite populations induce metastability, even in regions where fitness does not exhibit a local optimum. In particular, the model predicts the occurrence of “fitness epochs”—periods of stasis in population fitness distributions—at finite population size and identifies the locations of these fitness epochs with the flow’s hyperbolic fixed points. This enables exact predictions of the metastable fitness distributions during the fitness epochs, as well as giving insight into the nature of the periods of stasis and the innovations between them. All these results are obtained as closedform expressions in terms of the GA’s parameters.
Adaptive Nonlinear Approximations
, 1994
"... The problem of optimally approximating a function with a linear expansion over a redundant dictionary of waveforms is NPhard. The greedy matching pursuit algorithm and its orthogonalized variant produce suboptimal function expansions by iteratively choosing the dictionary waveforms which best matc ..."
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Cited by 52 (1 self)
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The problem of optimally approximating a function with a linear expansion over a redundant dictionary of waveforms is NPhard. The greedy matching pursuit algorithm and its orthogonalized variant produce suboptimal function expansions by iteratively choosing the dictionary waveforms which best match the function's structures. Matching pursuits provide a means of quickly computing compact, adaptive function approximations. Numerical experiments show that the approximation errors from matching pursuits initially decrease rapidly, but the asymptotic decay rate of the errors is slow. We explain this behavior by showing that matching pursuits are chaotic, ergodic maps. The statistical properties of the approximation errors of a pursuit can be obtained from the invariant measure of the pursuit. We characterize these measures using group symmetries of dictionaries and using a stochastic differential equation model. These invariant measures define a noise with respect to a given dictionary. ...
Extracting macroscopic dynamics: model problems and algorithms
 NONLINEARITY
, 2004
"... In many applications, the primary objective of numerical simulation of timeevolving systems is the prediction of macroscopic, or coarsegrained, quantities. A representative example is the prediction of biomolecular conformations from molecular dynamics. In recent years a number of new algorithmic ..."
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Cited by 48 (8 self)
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In many applications, the primary objective of numerical simulation of timeevolving systems is the prediction of macroscopic, or coarsegrained, quantities. A representative example is the prediction of biomolecular conformations from molecular dynamics. In recent years a number of new algorithmic approaches have been introduced to extract effective, lowerdimensional, models for the macroscopic dynamics; the starting point is the full, detailed, evolution equations. In many cases the effective lowdimensional dynamics may be stochastic, even when the original starting point is deterministic. This review surveys a number of these new approaches to the problem of extracting effective dynamics, highlighting similarities and differences between them. The importance of model problems for the evaluation of these new approaches is stressed, and a number of model problems are described. When the macroscopic dynamics is stochastic, these model problems are either obtained through a clear separation of timescales, leading to a stochastic effect of the fast dynamics on the slow dynamics, or by considering high dimensional ordinary differential equations which, when projected onto a low dimensional subspace, exhibit stochastic behaviour through the presence of a broad frequency spectrum. Models whose stochastic microscopic behaviour leads to deterministic macroscopic dynamics are also introduced. The algorithms we overview include SVDbased methods for nonlinear problems, model reduction for linear control systems, optimal prediction techniques, asymptoticsbased mode elimination, coarse timestepping methods and transferoperator based methodologies.
Molecular Modeling Of Proteins And Mathematical Prediction Of Protein Structure
 SIAM Review
, 1997
"... . This paper discusses the mathematical formulation of and solution attempts for the socalled protein folding problem. The static aspect is concerned with how to predict the folded (native, tertiary) structure of a protein, given its sequence of amino acids. The dynamic aspect asks about the possib ..."
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Cited by 47 (4 self)
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. This paper discusses the mathematical formulation of and solution attempts for the socalled protein folding problem. The static aspect is concerned with how to predict the folded (native, tertiary) structure of a protein, given its sequence of amino acids. The dynamic aspect asks about the possible pathways to folding and unfolding, including the stability of the folded protein. From a mathematical point of view, there are several main sides to the static problem:  the selection of an appropriate potential energy function;  the parameter identification by fitting to experimental data; and  the global optimization of the potential. The dynamic problem entails, in addition, the solution of (because of multiple time scales very stiff) ordinary or stochastic differential equations (molecular dynamics simulation), or (in case of constrained molecular dynamics) of differentialalgebraic equations. A theme connecting the static and dynamic aspect is the determination and formation of...
Statistical mechanics of neocortical interactions: A scaling paradigm applied to electroencephalography
 PHYS. REV. A
, 1991
"... A series of papers has developed a statistical mechanics of neocortical interactions (SMNI), deriving aggregate behavior of experimentally observed columns of neurons from statistical electricalchemical properties of synaptic interactions. While not useful to yield insights at the single neuron lev ..."
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Cited by 47 (41 self)
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A series of papers has developed a statistical mechanics of neocortical interactions (SMNI), deriving aggregate behavior of experimentally observed columns of neurons from statistical electricalchemical properties of synaptic interactions. While not useful to yield insights at the single neuron level, SMNI has demonstrated its capability in describing largescale properties of shortterm memory and electroencephalographic (EEG) systematics. The necessity of including nonlinear and stochastic structures in this development has been stressed. In this paper, a more stringent test is placed on SMNI: The algebraic and numerical algorithms previously developed in this and similar systems are brought to bear to fit large sets of EEG and evoked potential data being collected to investigate genetic predispositions to alcoholism and to extract brain “signatures” of shortterm memory. Using the numerical algorithm of Very Fast Simulated ReAnnealing, it is demonstrated that SMNI can indeed fit this data within experimentally observed ranges of its underlying neuronalsynaptic parameters, and use the quantitative modeling results to examine physical neocortical mechanisms to discriminate between highrisk and lowrisk populations genetically predisposed to alcoholism. Since this first study is a control to span relatively long time epochs, similar to earlier attempts to establish such correlations, this discrimination is inconclusive because of other neuronal activity which can mask such effects. However, the SMNI model is shown to be consistent