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Firm Entry and Employment Dynamics in the Great Recession”, Federal Reserve Board FEDS Working Paper #2014-56. (2014)

by Michael Siemer
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Entry, Exit and the Shape of Aggregate Fluctuations in a General Equilibrium Model with Capital Heterogeneity

by Gian Luca Clementi, Aubhik Khan, Berardino Palazzo, Julia K. Thomas , 2014
"... We study the cyclical implications of endogenous …rm-level entry and exit decisions in a dynamic, stochastic general equilibrium model wherein …rms face persistent shocks to both aggregate and individual productivity. The model we explore is in the spirit of Hopenhayn (1992). Firms decisions regardi ..."
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We study the cyclical implications of endogenous …rm-level entry and exit decisions in a dynamic, stochastic general equilibrium model wherein …rms face persistent shocks to both aggregate and individual productivity. The model we explore is in the spirit of Hopenhayn (1992). Firms decisions regarding entry into production and their subsequent continuation are a¤ected not only by their expected productivities, but also by the presence of convex and nonconvex capital ad-justment costs, and hence their existing stocks. Our model is unique relative to other DSGE settings in that our incumbent …rms face two discrete choices, one regarding continuation and one regarding capital adjustment. As such, we can explore how age, size and selection reshape macroeconomic uctuations in an equilibrium environment with realistic …rm life-cycle dynamics and investment patterns. Examining standard business cycle moments and impulse responses, we …nd that changes in entry and exit rates and the age-size composition of …rms amplify responses over a typical business cycle driven by a disturbance to aggregate productivity and, to a lesser extent, protract them. Both results stem from an endogenous drag on TFP induced by a missing generation e¤ect, whereby an usually small number of entrants fails to replace an increased number of exitors. This e¤ect is most injurious several years out as the reduced cohorts of young …rms approach maturity. Declines in the number of …rms, and most notably in the numbers of young …rms, were dramatic over the U.S. 2007 recession. In an exercise designed to emulate that unusual episode, we consider a second shock that more directly a¤ects entry and the exit decisions of younger …rms. We …nd that it sharpens the missing generation e¤ect, delivering far more anemic recovery, and thus closer resemblance to the U.S. post-2009Q2 experience.

Reserve Bank of Richmond, and the Wharton School, and participants at 2014 BEA-Census Workshop

by Emin ; Dinlersoz , Henry R ; Hyatt , Hubert P Janicki , Emin M Dinlersoz , Henry R Hyatt , Hubert P Janicki , Emin M Dinlersoz , Henry R Hyatt , Hubert P Janicki , Emin M Dinlersoz , Ufuk Akcigit , Charles Brown , Ryan Decker , Jeremy Greenwood , John Haltiwanger , Kyle Herkenhoff , Kyle Hood , Shawn Klimek , Benjamin Moll , Toshihiko Mukoyama , Benjamin Pugsley , Erick Sager , Kristin Sandusky , Yongseok Shin
"... Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, ..."
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Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. The Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in Bonn is a local and virtual international research center and a place of communication between science, politics and business. IZA is an independent nonprofit organization supported by Deutsche Post Foundation. The center is associated with the University of Bonn and offers a stimulating research environment through its international network, workshops and conferences, data service, project support, research visits and doctoral program. IZA engages in (i) original and internationally competitive research in all fields of labor economics, (ii) development of policy concepts, and (iii) dissemination of research results and concepts to the interested public. Terms of use: Documents in D I S C U S S I O N P A P E R S E R I E IZA Discussion Papers often represent preliminary work and are circulated to encourage discussion. Citation of such a paper should account for its provisional character. A revised version may be available directly from the author. Young and small firms are typically matched with younger and nonemployed individuals, and they provide these workers with lower earnings compared to other firms. To explore the mechanisms behind these facts, a dynamic model of entrepreneurship is introduced, where individuals can choose not to work, become entrepreneurs, or work in one of the two sectors: corporate or entrepreneurial. The differences in production technology, financial constraints, and labor market frictions lead to sector-specific wages and worker sorting across the two sectors. Individuals with lower assets tend to accept lower-paying jobs in the entrepreneurial sector, an implication that finds support in the data. The effect on the entrepreneurial sector of changes in key parameters is also studied to explore some channels that may have contributed to the decline of entrepreneurship in the United States. JEL Classification: L26, J21, J22, J23, J24, J30, E21, E23, E24

VOLATILITY

by unknown authors
"... www.cepr.org This Discussion Paper is issued under the auspices of the Centre’s research programmeinLABOURECONOMICS.Anyopinionsexpressedherearethoseofthe author(s) and not those of the Centre for Economic Policy Research. Research disseminatedbyCEPRmay includeviewsonpolicy,but ..."
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www.cepr.org This Discussion Paper is issued under the auspices of the Centre’s research programmeinLABOURECONOMICS.Anyopinionsexpressedherearethoseofthe author(s) and not those of the Centre for Economic Policy Research. Research disseminatedbyCEPRmay includeviewsonpolicy,but theCentre itself takesno institutionalpolicypositions. TheCentreforEconomicPolicyResearchwasestablishedin1983asaneducational charity,topromoteindependentanalysisandpublicdiscussionofopeneconomies and the relationsamong them. It ispluralistandnonͲpartisan,bringingeconomic researchtobearontheanalysisofmediumͲandlongͲrunpolicyquestions. TheseDiscussionPapersoftenrepresentpreliminaryorincompletework,circulated toencouragediscussionandcomment.Citationanduseofsuchapapershouldtake accountofitsprovisionalcharacter. Copyright:TitoBoeri,PietroGaribaldiandEspenRMoen

Size Distribution and Firm Dynamics in an Economy with Credit Shocks In Hwan Jo

by Tatsuro Senga , 2014
"... A large body of empirical literature documents that …rm size distribution is highly-skewed and rms respond di¤erently by size and age over business cycles. We quantitatively investi-gate macroeconomic implications of matching the empirical size distribution in a model with production heterogeneity. ..."
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A large body of empirical literature documents that …rm size distribution is highly-skewed and rms respond di¤erently by size and age over business cycles. We quantitatively investi-gate macroeconomic implications of matching the empirical size distribution in a model with production heterogeneity. We build an equilibrium model of heterogeneous …rms, where each rm faces with a forward-looking collateral constraint for borrowing. We compare the aggre-gate dynamics of our model economy by changing our speci…cation of …rm-level productivity. We identify that the symmetric treatment of idiosyncratic productivity can be misleading, especially upon a …nancial shock. Aggregation over a skewed …rm size distribution implies that recovery from a credit crunch is relatively slower, amplifying resource misallocation from the borrowing constraint. We also study the micro-level employment dynamics upon exogenous shocks. In our model, a credit shock causes more disproportionate responses by rms; net employment growth among young …rms falls further. It follows that reallocation is further restricted among small and young …rms because of their limited credit, indicating that only productive young …rms grow faster. JEL Classi…cation:
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