forecast distribution provides conditionally well-calibrated density forecasts of returns, from which we obtain accurate estimates of conditional return quantiles. In the remainder of this paper, we proceed as follows. We begin in section 2 by formally developing the relevant quadratic variation theory

We define the relevant information in a signal x ∈ X as being the information that this signal provides about another signal y ∈ Y. Examples include the information that face images provide about the names of the people portrayed, or the information that speech sounds provide about the words spoken

scientist (see It rapidly became evident, however, that the social perceiver's actual inferential work and decision making looked little like these normative models. Rather, information processing is full of incomplete data gathering, shortcuts, errors, and biases (see At this point, we exchange

scheduling algorithms simply shuffle packet processing orders according to some established rates or priorities for different data flows, to test a scheduling algorithm requires setting up the appropriate control state at each router along the data flow paths. I was challenged to design a set-up protocol

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People who hold strong opinions on complex social issues are likely to examine relevant empirical evidence in a biased manner. They are apt to accept "confirming" evidence at face value while subjecting "discontinuing " evidence to critical evaluation, and as a result to draw

Abstract. Various aspects of the biochemistry of photosynthetic carbon assimilation in C3 plants are integrated into a form compatible with studies of gas exchange in leaves. These aspects include the kinetic properties of ribulose bisphosphate carboxylase-oxygenase; the requirements

PXY Z , can also receive all messages exchanged by the two parties over a public channel. The goal of a protocol is that the enemy obtains at most a negligible amount of information about S. Upper bounds on H(S) as a function of PXY Z are presented. Lower bounds on the rate H(S)=N (as N !1

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Using high-frequency data on deutschemark and yen returns against the dollar, we construct model-free estimates of daily exchange rate volatility and correlation that cover an entire decade. Our estimates, termed realized volatilities and correlations, are not only model-free, but also