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Biodiversity - global biodiversity scenarios for the year 2100
, 2000
"... Scenarios of changes in biodiversity for the year 2100 can now be developed based on scenarios of changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide, climate, vegetation, and land use and the known sensitivity of biodiversity to these changes. This study identified a ranking of the importance of drivers of chang ..."
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Cited by 362 (5 self)
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to experience the least biodiversity change because major land-use change has already occurred. Plausible changes in biodiversity in other biomes depend on interactions among the causes of biodiversity change. These interactions represent one of the largest uncertainties in projections of future biodiversity
Global and regional climate changes due to black carbon,
- Nat. Geosci.,
, 2008
"... Figure 1: Global distribution of BC sources and radiative forcing. a, BC emission strength in tons per year from a study by Bond et al. Full size image (42 KB) Review Nature Geoscience 1, 221 -227 (2008 Black carbon in soot is the dominant absorber of visible solar radiation in the atmosphere. Ant ..."
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Cited by 228 (5 self)
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latitudinal gradients 27, 28 , black carbon has opposing effects of adding energy to the atmosphere and reducing it at the surface. Furthermore the forcing has significant latitudinal gradients. It alters the radiative forcing through a complex web of processes 7 . The first concerns the increase in top
Humancentric Applications of Precise Location-based Services: a Plausible Future Scenario
"... This paper is part of a work-in-progress on location-based services (LBS) and their possible future effects on the way we live and work. The research question consists of two parts: How might humancentric applications of precise LBS affect our world in the future, and how can these issues be present ..."
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This paper is part of a work-in-progress on location-based services (LBS) and their possible future effects on the way we live and work. The research question consists of two parts: How might humancentric applications of precise LBS affect our world in the future, and how can these issues
permission by the authors. Joint ASU-Oxford (InSIS) Plausibility Project How plausible is plausibility as a scenario effectiveness criterion?
"... www.insis.ox.ac.uk Our intention is to contribute the fruits of our research to date to the first event of the joint ASU-Oxford Plausibility Project to be held in Arizona in November 2009. As such, this paper should be considered as work-in-progress, aimed at contributing to opening and supporting a ..."
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the topic of plausibility emerged from the second Oxford Futures Forum, which took place in April 2008. Section 2 introduces another OFF08-spawned collaborative initiative, The Oxford Scenarios: Beyond the Financial Crisis and suggests the value of a case study on the recent financial crisis is relevant
PRELIMINARY DRAFT – FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY PLAUSIBLE COMPLIANCE SCENARIOS FOR THE 33 % RENEWABLE ELECTRICITY STANDARD Plausible Scenario Background
"... The plausible compliance scenarios for the 33 % renewable electricity standard (RES) are a fundamental element of a proposed RES in California. In order to conduct a thorough analysis, a set of theoretical possibilities, or “plausible compliance scenarios, ” will be used to evaluate a range of poten ..."
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The plausible compliance scenarios for the 33 % renewable electricity standard (RES) are a fundamental element of a proposed RES in California. In order to conduct a thorough analysis, a set of theoretical possibilities, or “plausible compliance scenarios, ” will be used to evaluate a range
On linear variational surface deformation methods
"... This survey reviews the recent advances in linear variational mesh deformation techniques. These methods were developed for editing detailed high-resolution meshes, like those produced by scanning real-world objects. The challenge of manipulating such complex surfaces is three-fold: the deformatio ..."
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Cited by 169 (11 self)
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-fold: the deformation technique has to be sufficiently fast, robust, and intuitive and easy to control to be useful for interactive applications. An intuitive, and thus predictable, deformation tool should provide physically plausible and aesthetically pleasing surface deformations, which in particular requires its
AUSTRALIA’S FORESTRY INDUSTRY IN 2040: THREE PLAUSIBLE SCENARIOS
"... Over the next 30 years the Australian forestry industry will face the impacts of climate change and increasing demand. Currently an inquiry into the Australian forestry industry is gathering evidence of environmental, social and economical impacts, production opportunities and land use as key issues ..."
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issues for the Australian Parliament to consider (Australian Government, 2011). This report will outline the impacts of climate change and demand, with reference to its affects on the sectors of the economy, environment and society of Australia. Three plausible future scenarios of Australia
1 Negotiating Plausibility: Intervening in the Future of Nanotechnology
"... ABSTRACT: This paper investigates the challenges of negotiating plausibility in a national scenarios project- NanoFutures- focused on the social, political, economic, and ethical implications of nanotechnology initiated by the Center for Nanotechnology in Society at Arizona State University (CNS-ASU ..."
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Cited by 1 (0 self)
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ABSTRACT: This paper investigates the challenges of negotiating plausibility in a national scenarios project- NanoFutures- focused on the social, political, economic, and ethical implications of nanotechnology initiated by the Center for Nanotechnology in Society at Arizona State University (CNS
A New Dynamical Bottom-Up Energy Model for Germany Model Structure and Model Results
"... The results of calculations made by bottom-up linear optimization models (LP) are to some extent determined by the applied optimization strategy. Existing energy system models most commonly employ an optimization strategy which are known as perfect-foresight, i.e. an optimization of the total time p ..."
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up to 2030 show that consistent, reasonable and plausible future energy scenarios can be produced and analyzed. Furthermore some exemplary calculations of lost opportunities and (in)flexibility of technological scenarios to unexpected sudden changes are shown. Future work will include an endogenous
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