Results 1  10
of
1,919
Predicting Daily Probability Distributions of the S&P 500 Returns', Working paper
 York University
, 1998
"... Abstract: Most approaches in forecasting merely try to predict the next value of the time series. In contrast, this paper presents a framework to predict the full probability distribution. It is expressed as a mixture model: the dynamics of the individual states is modeled with socalled "expe ..."
Abstract

Cited by 22 (0 self)
 Add to MetaCart
Abstract: Most approaches in forecasting merely try to predict the next value of the time series. In contrast, this paper presents a framework to predict the full probability distribution. It is expressed as a mixture model: the dynamics of the individual states is modeled with socalled "
Behavioral theories and the neurophysiology of reward,
 Annu. Rev. Psychol.
, 2006
"... ■ Abstract The functions of rewards are based primarily on their effects on behavior and are less directly governed by the physics and chemistry of input events as in sensory systems. Therefore, the investigation of neural mechanisms underlying reward functions requires behavioral theories that can ..."
Abstract

Cited by 187 (0 self)
 Add to MetaCart
, contingency, prediction error, magnitude, probability, expected value, and variance. CONTENTS INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88 GENERAL IDEAS ON REWARD FUNCTION, AND A CALL FOR THEORY
The Relative Contribution of Jumps to Total Price Variance
 JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL ECONOMETRICS
, 2005
"... We examine tests for jumps based on recent asymptotic results; we interpret the tests as Hausmantype tests. Monte Carlo evidence suggests that the daily ratio zstatistic has appropriate size, good power, and good jump detection capabilities revealed by the confusion matrix comprised of jump classi ..."
Abstract

Cited by 162 (6 self)
 Add to MetaCart
We examine tests for jumps based on recent asymptotic results; we interpret the tests as Hausmantype tests. Monte Carlo evidence suggests that the daily ratio zstatistic has appropriate size, good power, and good jump detection capabilities revealed by the confusion matrix comprised of jump
Probability Forecasts of Daily Areal Precipitation for Small River Basins Probability Forecasts of Daily Areal Precipitation for Small River Basins
"... Heft 194 Probability Forecasts of Daily Areal Precipitation for ..."
Estimating probabilities
 Mon. Wea. Rev
, 1967
"... Probability prediction is defined as the estimate of the conditional probability distiibution of the future given the past and present. Of principal interest are probability predictions for dichotomous random variables, i.e., variables assuming the value 1 (success) or 0 (failure), in which case the ..."
Abstract

Cited by 10 (0 self)
 Add to MetaCart
, as well as by analysis of meteorological data. Binary events with continuous underlying variables (e.g., daily temperature exceeding its mean by k degrees) are also considered. The probability prediction is made by estimating the conditional distribution of the continuous variable and integrating over
Elementary Probability
"... Consider any experiment whose result is unknown, for example throwing a coin, the daily number of customers in a supermarket or the duration of a phone call in a service office. Each of these experiments has a more or less wide variety of possible results. The set of all these results is called resu ..."
Abstract
 Add to MetaCart
Consider any experiment whose result is unknown, for example throwing a coin, the daily number of customers in a supermarket or the duration of a phone call in a service office. Each of these experiments has a more or less wide variety of possible results. The set of all these results is called
An improved algorithm for estimating incident daily solar radiation from measurements of temperature, humidity, and precipitation
 Agric. For. Meteor
, 1999
"... We present a reformulation of the Bristow–Campbell model for daily solar radiation, developed using daily observations of radiation, temperature, humidity, and precipitation, from 40 stations in contrasting climates. By expanding the original model to include a spatially and temporally variable esti ..."
Abstract

Cited by 87 (5 self)
 Add to MetaCart
and snowcover probably contribute to variation in clearsky transmittance that remains unexplained by our method. MAE and bias for prediction of daily incident radiation were about 2.4 MJ mÿ2 dayÿ1 and 0.5 MJ mÿ2 dayÿ1, respectively. As a percent of the average observed values of incident radiation, MAE
26 From Diversity to Volatility: Probability of Daily Precipitation Extremes
"... Abstract. A sensible stochastic model is required to correctly estimate the risk associated with daily precipitation extremes. The same requirement holds for studying highfrequency precipitation extremes in the context of climate variability and change. Results derived from probability theory were ..."
Abstract

Cited by 2 (1 self)
 Add to MetaCart
Abstract. A sensible stochastic model is required to correctly estimate the risk associated with daily precipitation extremes. The same requirement holds for studying highfrequency precipitation extremes in the context of climate variability and change. Results derived from probability theory were
Climatological Estimates of Daily Local Nontornadic Severe Thunderstorm Probability for the United States
, 2004
"... The probability of nontornadic severe weather event reports near any location in the United States for any day of the year has been estimated. Gaussian smoothers in space and time have been applied to the observed record of severe thunderstorm occurrence from 1980 to 1994 to produce daily maps and a ..."
Abstract
 Add to MetaCart
The probability of nontornadic severe weather event reports near any location in the United States for any day of the year has been estimated. Gaussian smoothers in space and time have been applied to the observed record of severe thunderstorm occurrence from 1980 to 1994 to produce daily maps
Training teachers to teach probability
 Journal of Statistical Education
, 2004
"... In this paper we analyse the reasons why teaching probability is difficult for mathematics teachers, we describe the contents needed in the didactical preparation of teachers to teach probability and we present examples of activities to carry out this training. Nowadays probability and statistics is ..."
Abstract

Cited by 18 (2 self)
 Add to MetaCart
for daily life, its instrumental role in other disciplines, the need for a basic stochastic knowledge in many professions and its role in developing a critical reasoning. However, teaching probability and statistics is not easy for mathematics teachers. Primary and secondary level mathematics teachers
Results 1  10
of
1,919